designed by

Finding Value Bets for a Higher Chance of Winning

If you’re looking to beat the bookmakers, one of the most effective strategies is to find value bets. These are bets where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than what you believe the true odds of the event are. To spot these bets, you need to analyze the key statistics of the teams, such as their form, injuries, and head-to-head records.

For instance, consider a match between Manchester City and Chelsea. The bookmaker offers odds of 2.0 for Manchester City to win and 3.5 for Chelsea to win. But, based on your analysis, you believe that Manchester City has a 60% chance of winning. Using the formula 1 / (odds) x 100, you get:

1 / (2.0) x 100 = 50%

1 / (3.5) x 100 = 28.6%

This means that the bookmaker believes that Manchester City has a 50% chance of winning, while you believe that the probability is higher. In this case, you have identified a value bet and should consider placing a wager on Manchester City to win.

Bet Early to Increase Your Chances of Winning

Another way to beat the bookmakers is to bet early. When the odds are first released, they may not be accurate as the bookmaker has not yet received enough bets to adjust them accordingly. By placing your bets early, you can take advantage of these discrepancies and potentially get better odds.

For example, let’s say you want to bet on a match between Barcelona and Real Madrid. The bookmaker offers odds of 2.5 for Barcelona to win and 3.0 for Real Madrid to win. However, based on your analysis, you believe that Barcelona has a 70% chance of winning. If you wait until closer to the match, the bookmaker may have received more bets and adjusted the odds accordingly, making it less likely for you to find a value bet.

Therefore, if you want to beat the bookmakers, it’s important to be proactive and place your bets as early as possible.

Use Odds Comparators to Your Advantage

To spot value bets quickly and efficiently, you should use odds comparators. These are tools that allow you to compare the odds offered by different bookmakers for the same event. By doing so, you can identify any discrepancies in the odds and find value bets.

For example, imagine a match between Liverpool and Tottenham. Bookmaker A offers odds of 2.0 for Liverpool to win, while Bookmaker B offers odds of 2.2. This suggests that Bookmaker B believes that Liverpool has a higher chance of winning than Bookmaker A. By using an odds comparator, you can easily spot this discrepancy and place your bet accordingly.

Avoid Temptation and Stick to Simple Bets

When it comes to soccer betting, it’s easy to get tempted by accumulator bets and other exotic wagers that offer high payouts. However, these types of bets are often difficult to win, as the odds are stacked against you.

To increase your chances of beating the bookmakers, it’s important to stick to simple bets that have been misjudged by the bookmaker. This means placing wagers on the outcomes that you believe are most likely to occur, based on your analysis of the teams and their form. By doing so, you can minimize your risk and increase your chances of winning.

About the author

Troy Hanks

Troy Hanks

About me

Leave a Comment