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Many people enjoy betting on soccer matches, but the odds can be confusing. The good news is that with a basic understanding of mathematics, anyone can calculate the probability of a given outcome and use that information to their advantage. In this blog post, we’ll give you a step-by-step guide for how to calculate probability in soccer betting.

What Is Probability In Soccer Betting?

First, let’s start with the basics. Probability is the measure of how likely it is that an event will occur. We can express probability as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 means that the event is impossible and 1 means that the event is certain to occur. For example, the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads is 0.5, because there is an equal chance of getting heads or tails.

How to Calculate Probability in Soccer Betting

Now that we’ve reviewed the basics, let’s move on to calculating probability in soccer betting. Let’s say that you want to bet on a match between two teams, Team A and Team B. The first thing you need to do is research the teams and their recent performance history. This will help you get an idea of which team is more likely to win.

Next, you need to find out the odds that are being offered by the bookmaker for each outcome. The odds represent the bookmaker’s estimate of the probability of each outcome occurring. For example, if the bookmaker offers odds of 2.5 for Team A to win, they believe that the probability of Team A winning is 2.5 / (2.5 + 1) = 0.714.

Now that you know the bookmaker’s estimates of the probabilities of each outcome, you can use those estimates to calculate your own expected return from betting on each outcome. To do this, you simply multiply the odds by the probability and subtract 1. For example, if you bet on Team A to win at odds of 2.5 and they win, your return would be 2.5 x 0 .714 – 1 = 0 .64 . This means that for every $1 you bet, you would expect to earn $0 .64 .


Calculating probability can seem daunting at first, but with a little practice it becomes second nature. By taking the time to understand how probability works and using that knowledge to your advantage, you can increase your chances of making money from soccer betting.

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Troy Hanks

Troy Hanks

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