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Ever wonder how to best manage your bankroll while football betting? The Kelly Criterion is here to the rescue! In this blog, we will explore the formula and how it can be used to maximize your potential winnings.

What is Kelly Criterion in football betting?

It helps determine the optimal amount you should wager when there’s a discrepancy between true and given odds. Don’t let its complexity fool you – once understood, it can be surprisingly straightforward.

The Kelly Criterion Formula

This formula takes into account the odds of a bet, the bettor’s probability of success, and their bankroll. It provides a risk-reward balance that allows bettors to make the most of their betting opportunities:

f = p – q/b


  • f is the portion you should use for betting
  • p is the probability of winning
  • q is the probability of losing (or 1 – P)
  • b is the multiple of your stake you’re expected to win (decimal odds – 1).

Kelly Criterion Football Example

For instance, if Manchester United were playing Real Madrid in a Champions League final and you believed that Real Madrid had a 65% chance of winning (based on your own analysis), you would use the following formula to determine how much of your bankroll you should bet:

  • b = 1.82 – 1 = 0.82
  • p = 0.65
  • q = 0.35
  • f* = [(1.82 × 0.65) – 0.35] ÷ 0.82 = 0.2231

Which means you should bet 22.31% of your bankroll on Real Madrid winning.

Pros and Cons of Utilizing the Kelly Criterion for Football Betting

The Kelly Criterion provides bettors with an efficient and effective way to maximize their return. It allows bettors to make strategic decisions regarding the size of their wagers. It also provides an accurate measure of the expected return. However, it’s important to remember that the Kelly Criterion formula is only a guide and it should not be used as a certainty. Betting is still an unpredictable venture, and should be approached with caution.


Using this method can help ensure that even when things don’t go according to plan, there’s still enough money left in the bankroll for future bets. By conducting research before each match, bettors can gain an edge over bookmakers and increase their chances of winning .

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Troy Hanks

Troy Hanks

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